Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
